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Drafting from Pick 14 in Superflex: Mining Value After the Position Runs
Superflex logic centers on the QB Premium Window: two lineup slots can start a quarterback instead of one, so QBs jump tiers fast.
Around Pick 14
| Player | Pos | Team | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | B2 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | B2 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | C1 |
The Turn (Pick 37)
| Player | Pos | Team | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | A2 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | B1 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | B1 |
Third Wave (Pick 60)
| Player | Pos | Team | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | B2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | C1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | B1 |
Trade Logic
In superflex, pick 14's trade-up target is pick 7 — Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, WR) (tier B1) sits right there, and with two lineup slots pulling from the same shallow QB pool, that turn bucket is exactly where the position compresses. Jonathan Taylor (tier B2) is the alternative sitting in that same window if the QB run has already passed you by. There is no pick past 16 to bank a trade-down into from here, so the only real question left is whether the QB pool still has starter-caliber equity worth reaching for before the position dries up entirely. This deep, the discount plays are the ones with real rushing or volume equity at the position — the QB2 stash market lives here. Value-tier superflex picks are about finding the passer the field has priced like a bench arm when the equity says otherwise.
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Sleepers & Fades
Because superflex can start two quarterbacks, the sleeper-versus-fade split at this value-tier pick, pick 14, is a bet on which name still jumps a QB tier and which one the market has already locked in. Jalen Hurts (PHI, QB), tier A1, ECR 4, shows a std_dev of 12.2 — in two-QB math that volatility is the tier-jump risk, a name the room could still price as a QB1 stash or let fall as a QB2 dart. Kyren Williams (tier B2) sits at a std_dev of only 4.1, tight enough that the two-QB market has already found his tier — a locked-in stash, not a volatility play. That 24-spot ECR gap matters less here than the tier-volatility read: Jalen Hurts's std_dev is the two-QB format's own tier-jump bet, Kyren Williams's is already a locked, fully priced stash.